Payout Preflight
Bitcoin's 2028 Halving, By the Numbers, for Solo Miners
Bitcoin's subsidy halves to 1.5625 BTC around April 2028. Here is the math on daily issuance, solo mining odds, and what actually changes versus what doesn't.
One number sits at the center of Bitcoin's next scheduled halving: 1.5625. That is the block subsidy, in BTC, that a Bitcoin miner will receive for finding a block after the halving expected around block 1,050,000, currently estimated near April 2028. It is half of today's 3.125 BTC subsidy, which has been in effect since the April 2024 halving. Every other number in a Bitcoin 2028 halving solo mining conversation follows from that one figure, so it is worth working outward from it rather than starting anywhere else.
The Core Number: 3.125 to 1.5625
| Metric | Before April 2028 | After April 2028 |
|---|---|---|
| Block subsidy | 3.125 BTC | 1.5625 BTC |
| Approx. daily issuance (144 blocks/day, subsidy only) | ~450 BTC | ~225 BTC |
| Blocks until next halving after this one | 210,000 | 210,000 |
| Halving occurs at block height | ~1,050,000 | ~1,260,000 (following halving) |
The halving mechanism itself is simple and fixed by Bitcoin's code: every 210,000 blocks, the subsidy paid to whoever finds a block is cut in half. It has happened on schedule four times already, most recently in April 2024, and the 2028 event is simply the next scheduled occurrence of the same rule, not a new or unusual mechanism.
What the 2028 Halving Does Not Touch: Solo Mining Odds
This is the part worth stating plainly, because it is easy to blur the two together: the halving changes how much BTC a found block pays, not how likely a given miner is to find one. Odds of finding a block are set entirely by a miner's own hashrate divided by the network's total hashrate at that moment, identical for every miner on the chain and completely unrelated to the size of the subsidy. Take a representative solo mining device running at 1.2 terahashes per second against Bitcoin's network hashrate, which has been running near 900 exahashes per second in the second half of August 2026. Dividing 1.2 by 900,000,000 (900 EH/s expressed in terahashes) gives a per-block probability of about 1 in 750 million. Using roughly 52,560 blocks per year for Bitcoin's 10-minute target, that works out to an expected wait of about 14,270 years at that hashrate, run continuously, before and after the halving alike. Nothing about a smaller subsidy shortens or lengthens that wait.
What the Number Does Touch: The Payout If You Win
What the halving changes is the size of the prize if the improbable actually happens. A solo miner who finds a block before April 2028 collects a 3.125 BTC subsidy plus whatever transaction fees were in that block; the same miner finding a block after the halving collects 1.5625 BTC plus fees. Fees already make up a meaningful share of total miner income today, commonly cited in the 10 to 15 percent range under normal network conditions and higher during periods of network congestion, and industry discussion around the 2028 halving generally expects that share to matter more once the subsidy itself is smaller, though how much more is genuinely uncertain and depends on future fee demand that cannot be forecast precisely today.
What Solo Mining Economics Actually Depend On
None of the halving math above changes the basic inputs a solo miner already has to weigh: hardware cost, electricity cost, and the honest fact that a payout is never scheduled or guaranteed on any timeline. The halving does not make solo mining a better or worse bet in isolation; it changes what winning is worth, not how often winning happens. Anyone weighing whether to start, or continue, solo mining through a halving cycle is making a decision about hardware and electricity costs against a fixed, tiny probability, not against a number that moves with the subsidy.
Where NexusPool Fits Into This Math
None of this changes what a non-custodial pool actually does structurally: whatever the subsidy is on the day a solo miner finds a block, the full reward, subsidy plus fees, pays directly to that miner's own address through the coinbase transaction, with nothing held back and no fee taken. NexusPool's technology overview covers the connection and payout mechanics in detail, and the full terms governing the arrangement are published at NexusPool's terms page. A miner does not have to take any of that on faith either; a tool that reconstructs and checks a found block's coinbase transaction ahead of time exists for exactly that verification.
What This Doesn't Claim
This post does not claim the exact date or block height of the 2028 halving with certainty; both remain estimates that can shift slightly as network hashrate and difficulty change between now and then. It does not claim fee revenue will definitely rise enough to offset a smaller subsidy, which is a genuinely open industry question. It does not claim solo mining is a good investment at any subsidy level; it is a probabilistic search for a block reward. It also does not claim NexusPool's core source code is public; NexusPool is free with no fee, but the underlying code is not yet open for outside review.
FAQ
When exactly does the 2028 halving happen? It is estimated around block height 1,050,000, projected near April 2028, but the exact date shifts slightly with actual network hashrate and difficulty between now and then.
Does the halving make solo mining odds worse? No. Odds are set by a miner's hashrate divided by network hashrate, unrelated to the block subsidy amount, so the halving does not change the probability of finding a block either way.
Will transaction fees replace the lost subsidy after 2028? That is genuinely uncertain. Fees already contribute meaningfully to miner income today, and industry discussion expects that share to grow in importance, but the exact scale depends on future network demand that cannot be forecast precisely.
Does a pool's fee structure interact with the halving? A 0% fee pool structure means a found block's full reward, whatever the subsidy is at the time, goes to the miner's own address either way, so the halving's effect on payout size is unrelated to pool fees.
Should I change my mining setup ahead of the halving? That depends on your own hardware and electricity costs weighed against a fixed, tiny probability of finding a block, not on the halving itself, since the halving changes payout size rather than odds.
Trust nothing. Verify the actual math behind a halving headline before it changes how you think about your own setup.