Dogecoin and Litecoin Solo Mining Odds, Now That the Hashrate Has Cooled

Dogecoin's network hashrate climbed as high as 8.72 petahashes per second in February 2026 before pulling back and settling into a range of roughly 2.7 to 3.4 petahashes per second through the middle of the year. Litecoin, which Dogecoin has been merge mined with since 2014, shows a similar pattern of a busy first half of 2026 followed by a calmer summer. Data trackers currently put Litecoin's network hashrate at about 2.86 petahashes per second and Dogecoin's at about 2.77 petahashes per second. For anyone weighing Dogecoin Litecoin solo mining odds against running a Bitcoin device instead, that cooldown is worth walking through with actual numbers rather than a vague sense that Scrypt mining is quieter than it was.

CoinWarz's hashrate tracking shows the shape of this year clearly: a sharp climb into February, then a steady give-back over the following months as some of the newest high powered Scrypt ASICs that drove the spike either sold at a loss, moved to other jurisdictions, or came offline entirely once electricity costs caught up with them. None of that changes what AuxPoW merged mining actually is or how the odds behind it work. It changes the size of the total pool of hashrate a solo miner's device is being measured against, which is exactly the number that determines the odds.

The Actual Dogecoin and Litecoin Solo Mining Odds for a Home Scrypt Rig

A miner's probability of finding a block on any chain comes from one ratio: the miner's own hashrate divided by that chain's total network hashrate. Take a home scale Scrypt device running at roughly 9.5 gigahashes per second, a reasonable illustrative figure for recent generation Scrypt ASICs. Against Litecoin's current network hashrate of about 2.86 petahashes per second, that device represents a probability of about 3.32 times ten to the negative sixth per block. Litecoin targets a block roughly every 150 seconds, or about 210,240 blocks per year, which works out to an expected wait of roughly 17 months for that device to find a single Litecoin block on its own.

Because the same share submitted for Litecoin is checked against Dogecoin's own block header at the same time under AuxPoW, that identical 9.5 gigahash per second device also carries an independent chance at a Dogecoin block. Against Dogecoin's current network hashrate of about 2.77 petahashes per second, the per block probability comes out to roughly 3.43 times ten to the negative sixth. Dogecoin targets a block about once a minute, or roughly 525,600 blocks per year, which works out to an expected wait of about six and a half months for a Dogecoin block from that same device. The two chances are separate and both real, computed from each chain's own current difficulty, not added together or multiplied against each other.

Why the Odds Look Different From a Bitcoin Comparison

Anyone who has read about Bitcoin's own solo mining odds, where a comparable illustrative device faces an expected wait measured in centuries, will notice the Scrypt numbers above look far more approachable. That gap is not a trick and it is not because Scrypt mining is somehow easier in principle. It comes entirely from the size of the network hashrate each chain is competing against. Litecoin and Dogecoin's combined network hashrate sits in the low petahash range, several orders of magnitude below Bitcoin's roughly 855 exahash per second total, so the same physical device represents a much larger fractional share of the smaller network. The underlying math, hashrate divided by network hashrate, is identical in both cases. Only the denominator changed.

What NexusPool Actually Offers Merged Miners

NexusPool supports solo mining on Litecoin and Dogecoin together through native AuxPoW merged mining, alongside Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, with 0 percent taken on any chain and the full block reward, on either chain, paid directly to the miner's own address with no pool held balance in between. Details specific to Litecoin and Dogecoin solo mining, including connection information, live on NexusPool's Litecoin technology page, with the broader Litecoin overview available at NexusPool's Litecoin page. Because the numbers above depend on the coinbase output actually landing where a miner expects, running a configuration through NexusPool's Payout Preflight before mining is a reasonable habit regardless of which chain's odds brought you here.

What This Doesn't Claim

This post does not claim that Dogecoin or Litecoin solo mining is a reliable source of income, or that the hashrate figures used here will hold steady going forward. Both networks have swung significantly within 2026 alone, and the odds calculated above will shift as those totals shift. This post also does not claim that AuxPoW merged mining doubles a miner's chances in any single sense. It grants two separate, independently computed chances from the same physical work, not one combined probability. Finally, this post does not claim NexusPool's core source code is public today. It is free to use with no fee on any supported chain, but the underlying code is not yet open for outside review.

FAQ

What is AuxPoW merged mining in plain terms?
It means the same proof of work a Scrypt device produces for a Litecoin block header is simultaneously checked against Dogecoin's own difficulty target, giving one physical unit of hashrate two separate, independently computed chances at a reward.

What is a realistic expected wait for solo mining Dogecoin with a home rig?
Using a roughly 9.5 gigahash per second device against Dogecoin's current network hashrate of about 2.77 petahashes per second, and Dogecoin's roughly 525,600 blocks per year, the expected wait works out to about six and a half months, with real outcomes varying widely around that figure.

Does merged mining cost more in electricity than mining Litecoin alone?
No. The same hashing work is checked against both chains at once, so there is no additional power draw for the Dogecoin chance beyond what mining Litecoin already requires.

Why did Dogecoin and Litecoin hashrate fall after the February 2026 peak?
Reporting on the trend points to a wave of newly deployed high powered Scrypt hardware pulling back as electricity costs and hardware payback periods caught up with some operators, though the exact mix of causes varies by report.

Does NexusPool charge separately for Litecoin and Dogecoin solo mining?
No. NexusPool takes 0 percent on every chain it supports, including the AuxPoW merged mining of Litecoin and Dogecoin, with the full reward on either chain paid directly to the miner's own address.

Trust nothing. Verify which chain your merged block actually credits before you count on either payout.