Solo Bitcoin Mining Surge: Should You Join in 2026

Solo miners found 24 Bitcoin blocks over the past twelve months, a 41 percent increase year over year, collecting a combined 75.44 BTC along the way. The surge tracks the rise of cheap, open-hardware devices that make solo mining accessible without an industrial setup. A bigger count of wins sounds like an invitation. Before treating it as one, work through this honest self-check.

Check Yourself Against These Five Questions

• Do you understand that a rising count of wins reflects more people participating, not better odds for any single device?
• Are you comfortable treating the electricity cost as money already spent, whether or not you ever find a block?
• Do you want direct, non-custodial ownership of a full block reward more than you want the smaller, steadier payouts of pooled mining?
• Would running the hardware still feel worthwhile to you even in a year where you find nothing?
• Can you verify a pool's payout mechanism yourself instead of taking a claim on faith?

If most of those are genuine yes answers, solo mining fits how you actually want to use the hardware. If several are no, pooled mining or simply holding Bitcoin outright likely fits better.

Why More Wins Doesn't Mean Better Odds

A miner's probability of finding a block comes from one ratio: that miner's own hashrate divided by the network's total hashrate at that moment. Take a representative open-hardware device running at 1.2 terahashes per second, roughly the middle of the range driving the current surge. Bitcoin's network hashrate sits at roughly 855 exahashes per second in mid-to-late August 2026, or 855,000,000 terahashes per second. Dividing 1.2 by 855,000,000 gives a probability of about 1 in 712.5 million per block. At Bitcoin's roughly 52,560 blocks-per-year pace, that works out to an expected wait of roughly 13,556 years at that hashrate, run continuously. The 41 percent jump in wins reflects a larger number of devices attempting this simultaneously across the whole network, not a change to what any single device's odds actually are.

Try the Numbers Yourself

Your hashrate	Odds per block (at 855 EH/s network)	Expected wait
0.5 TH/s	1 in ~1.71 billion	~32,536 years
1.2 TH/s	1 in ~712.5 million	~13,556 years
3 TH/s	1 in ~285 million	~5,422 years
10 TH/s	1 in ~85.5 million	~1,627 years

What the Surge Doesn't Change

No amount of rising participation changes the underlying math above for any individual device, and no pool can make one device's hashrate luckier. What has genuinely changed is that low-cost, open-hardware devices have brought more total attempts into the pool of people trying, which is a real, honest explanation for more total wins across the network without implying any single miner's odds improved.

If You Decide to Join

NexusPool supports solo mining on Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin through merged mining, and Bitcoin Cash, non-custodially: the block reward pays your own address directly with no pool-held balance and no fee taken. Details on the encrypted, dual-protocol connection setup are on NexusPool's technology page, and the terms governing the whole arrangement are published in full at nexuspool.io/terms.

What This Doesn't Claim

This post does not claim solo mining is a good financial decision, and it does not claim the current surge in wins means the odds have improved for any individual miner. Solo mining is a probabilistic search for a block reward, not an investment, and nothing here is financial advice. This post also does not claim NexusPool's core source code is public today; it is free to use with no fee, but the code itself is not yet open for outside review.

FAQ

Does the 41 percent increase in wins mean my odds are better now?

No. It reflects more devices attempting solo mining across the network, not a change to any single device's own probability, which is set by that device's hashrate divided by total network hashrate.

What hashrate do most open-hardware solo miners actually run?

Current open-hardware devices in this category commonly run in the roughly 1 to 1.3 terahash per second range, though this varies by specific model.

Is the calculator on this page exact?

It is a straightforward calculation from the inputs you give it, useful for comparison, but real network hashrate shifts constantly and a calculator output is never a schedule or a guarantee.

Does a non-custodial pool change my odds of finding a block?

No. Custody model affects where a reward goes once found. It has no effect on the probability of finding one.

What should I actually budget for if I try this?

Treat the electricity cost as money already spent the moment you turn the hardware on, not as an investment with an expected return, since a payout is never guaranteed on any timeline.

Trust nothing. Verify the actual odds for your own hashrate before deciding the surge means anything for you personally.